KOF Forecasts For Swiss tourism: Slow recovery In Sight
A gradual recovery of the tourism sector began as early as late summer - also among European tourists. Domestic travelers, however, remain the mainstay of the tourism industry, while long-distance markets are only recovering very slowly. For the coming winter and summer seasons, the KOF is assuming a gradual normalization in its tourism forecast.
Review of the summer season 2021: Overnight stays 21% below the pre-crisis level
Last summer, tourism activity did not yet reach its normal level, despite the defusing of the pandemic situation and the easing of travel through the COVID certificates. The number of overnight stays was 21% lower than in summer 2019. As in the previous year, domestic tourists in particular made a major contribution to this development. The number of domestic overnight stays in the summer of 2021 was even 2.5 million higher than the pre-crisis level. Overnight stays by foreign guests, on the other hand, were still 43% of the pre-crisis level. Recently, however, the situation in terms of demand from foreign guests has improved. Since July, an average of 60% of the level of foreign guests before the pandemic has been reached again.
High immunization could ensure a rapid recovery in distant markets
The long-distance markets also showed the first signs of life in the 2021 summer season, albeit only sporadically. In particular, the demand from tourists from the USA increased noticeably in August. The number of overnight stays by tourists from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which rose significantly in the summer months, was also remarkable. With a full immunization rate of more than 85% of the population over the age of twelve, the UAE has the highest vaccination rate in the world, closely followed by other Gulf states such as Qatar and Bahrain. The UAE is the first long-distance market to be above the pre-crisis level in terms of overnight stays. It is true that guests from the UAE only make up a small proportion of all travelers. However, this development suggests that high immunization,
Outlook for the winter season 2021/22: more residents, but fewer foreign tourists
In the winter half of 2021/22 there will be hardly any restrictions on the supply side. An increase in the corona infection rates in the winter months is likely, but new containment measures are no longer to be expected due to the advanced vaccination campaigns. There are currently no plans to require a certificate in the mountain railways, which means that less strict rules will apply in Switzerland than in Austria or Germany, for example. A certain catch-up effect is to be expected among travelers who had to or wanted to forego a winter holiday in the past year - especially among tourists from inland and neighboring countries. Although residents are increasingly likely to also choose foreign destinations, The number of overnight stays will be significantly higher than last winter's and is likely to be even higher than before the pandemic. According to the KOF forecast, the number of visitors from abroad will still be lower than before the crisis in winter 2021/22 - despite the ongoing pandemic normalization.
Gradual normalization in the summer 2022 season
Foreign tourism destinations are also likely to become more attractive again from the summer season 2022 onwards, as part of the expected gradual normalization. As a result, domestic tourism, which was comparatively strong in the pandemic years, is likely to decline again, but remain at a slightly higher level. According to the KOF forecast, tourist flows from Europe will continue their strong recovery and in the summer season 2022 will slightly exceed the level from before the pandemic. In the urban areas, the recovery is still rather sluggish, mainly due to the decline in business tourism and the absence of tourists from outside Europe. The hotel industry in the Alpine region, on the other hand, is likely to continue its gradual recovery.
Special analysis: Para-hotel business recovers faster than hotel business - especially camping popular
The non-hotel business, which includes holiday apartments, collective accommodation and campsites, recovered faster and more vigorously than the hotel business after the strict containment measures in spring 2020. According to a special analysis by the KOF, the demand for overnight stays on campsites was particularly high. Compared to 2019, the number of nights spent camping increased 1.8 times from January to June 2021. However, these high values are likely to decline again in the course of normalization as the pandemic subsides. In terms of domestic demand, a certain pent-up demand for trips abroad will have a dampening effect on the currently high number of overnight stays in the additional hotel business. However, higher numbers of foreign tourists can be expected at the same time. However, it can be assumed that the demand for overnight stays in collective accommodation is likely to recover completely from next year. This should have a stabilizing effect on the development of the additional hotel industry as a whole.
The KOF's tourism forecasts are prepared on behalf of the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO). With the Act on the Promotion of Innovation, Cooperation and Knowledge Building in Tourism (Innotour), SECO has the option of financing tourism forecasts. The immediate addressees of the tourism forecasts are the industry and the cantons.
